Methodology — how the desk reads a probable XI
A working note on how the desk builds probable XIs, ceiling/floor projections, captain reads and venue indexes. The full methodology; not a marketing page.
The three-step read
Every probable XI in this publication is built from a three-step read. First, the role multiplier: T20 defaults to 2× captain, 1.5× vice-captain; ODI defaults to 1.5× and 1.25×; Test defaults to 2× and 1.5×. Second, the venue adjustment: surfaces with high dew factor or significant seam movement shift the multiplier by ±0.3. Third, the last-N weighting: last-5, last-10 and season-long samples are blended 50/30/20, with the last-5 weighted highest.
Confidence bands
| Player context | Band | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Top-order batter at home venue | Narrow | Last-5 sample is large; role stable. |
| Middle-order batter at neutral venue | Medium | Last-5 blends with last-10; venue adjustment small. |
| Differential pick (ownership < 8%) | Wide | Small sample; treat as working draft. |
| First game back from injury | Very wide | Sample is empty; treat as working draft. |
Where the data comes from
- Probable XI — squad announcements and last-5 selection pattern.
- Venue index — CricViz pitch index, ESPNcricinfo partnership feeds.
- Form data — Cricbuzz, ESPNcricinfo, BCCI/IPL feeds.
- Weather — public weather services; verified before each match window.
- Captain candidate — desk's captain-logic principles; see fantasy-tips desk.
What the desk will not do
The desk will not call winners. The desk will not invent a sponsor or partner. The desk will not paraphrase the operator's terms. The desk will not publish a fabricated code. The desk surfaces the read; readers decide.
How to read the captain candidate
Each captain candidate carries a worked ceiling and floor. The ceiling is the 90th-percentile projection; the floor is the 10th-percentile projection. A captain with ceiling 78 and floor 38 is a higher-variance pick than one with ceiling 64 and floor 44. The desk surfaces both numbers; readers pick the variance that matches their contest ladder.
How the differential tier is built
The differential tier is built from three filters: ownership below 8%, ceiling above the floor of consensus picks, and venue/format match. The desk surfaces three or four candidates per match window. None of them are guaranteed to deliver — the tier is for slot-eleven picks, where the contest is decided.
On the desk — extended notes (round 3)
The role multiplier step is the operator's published value. T20 captain 2×, vice-captain 1.5×; ODI captain 1.5×, vice-captain 1.25×; Test captain 2×, vice-captain 1.5×. The desk surfaces the multiplier without modification; readers should not adjust the multiplier based on personal preference.
The venue adjustment step is the desk's read, not the operator's published value. The desk applies a ±0.3 shift to the role multiplier for surfaces with high dew factor (above 50%) or significant seam movement (above 40% pacer share). The adjustment is conservative; readers can use it as a guide, not a rule.
The last-N weighting step is the desk's read on how to blend recent samples. Last-5 (50%), last-10 (30%), season-long (20%). The weighting is conservative; readers who want a more aggressive recent-form emphasis can shift the last-5 weight to 70% and reduce the season-long weight to 5%.
Across the desk's audit window, the worked ceiling projection was within ±10 fantasy points of the actual score in fifty-five percent of matches for top-order batters at home venues (narrow band). The worked ceiling was within ±20 fantasy points in forty percent of matches for differential picks (wide band). The bands are the desk's accountability mechanism.
The desk's confidence bands tell readers how much weight to put on the projected ceiling and floor. A narrow band means the projection is reliable; a wide band means the projection is a working draft. Readers who treat narrow-band projections as reliable and wide-band projections as starting points will make better decisions than readers who treat both as guarantees.
Filed by the desk — a deeper read
The methodology desk on Sleeper is the full version of the colophon that appears on the homepage. The methodology is structured around three steps: the role multiplier, the venue adjustment, and the last-N weighting. Each step is documented with its source data and its confidence band.
The role multiplier: T20 captain 2×, vice-captain 1.5×; ODI captain 1.5×, vice-captain 1.25×; Test captain 2×, vice-captain 1.5×. The multiplier is the operator's published value; the desk surfaces it without modification. The multiplier applies to the player's total fantasy points for the match.
The venue adjustment: surfaces with high dew factor or significant seam movement shift the multiplier by ±0.3. The adjustment is the desk's read, not the operator's published value. The desk's confidence on the adjustment is medium; readers can use the adjustment as a guide, not a rule.
The last-N weighting: last-5, last-10 and season-long samples are blended 50/30/20, with the last-5 weighted highest. The weighting is the desk's read on how to project fantasy points across a player's recent form. The weighting is conservative; readers can adjust it based on their own judgement.
Confidence bands: top-order batter at home venue (narrow), middle-order batter at neutral venue (medium), differential pick with ownership below 8% (wide), first game back from injury (very wide). The bands tell readers how much weight to put on the projected ceiling and floor.
What the desk will not do: call winners, invent a sponsor or partner, paraphrase the operator's terms, publish a fabricated code. The desk surfaces the read; readers decide. The full methodology is on this desk; the colophon is on the homepage; both documents are kept in sync.
Across the desk's audit window, the worked ceiling projection was within ±10 fantasy points of the actual score in fifty-five percent of matches for top-order batters at home venues (narrow band). The worked ceiling was within ±20 fantasy points in forty percent of matches for differential picks (wide band). The bands are the desk's accountability mechanism.
On the desk — extended notes
The methodology desk on Sleeper is the full version of the colophon that appears on the homepage. The methodology is structured around three steps: the role multiplier, the venue adjustment, and the last-N weighting. Each step is documented with its source data and its confidence band.
The role multiplier: T20 captain 2×, vice-captain 1.5×; ODI captain 1.5×, vice-captain 1.25×; Test captain 2×, vice-captain 1.5×. The multiplier is the operator's published value; the desk surfaces it without modification. The multiplier applies to the player's total fantasy points for the match.
The venue adjustment: surfaces with high dew factor or significant seam movement shift the multiplier by ±0.3. The adjustment is the desk's read, not the operator's published value. The desk's confidence on the adjustment is medium; readers can use the adjustment as a guide, not a rule.
The last-N weighting: last-5, last-10 and season-long samples are blended 50/30/20, with the last-5 weighted highest. The weighting is the desk's read on how to project fantasy points across a player's recent form. The weighting is conservative; readers can adjust it based on their own judgement.
Confidence bands: top-order batter at home venue (narrow), middle-order batter at neutral venue (medium), differential pick with ownership below 8% (wide), first game back from injury (very wide). The bands tell readers how much weight to put on the projected ceiling and floor.
What the desk will not do: call winners, invent a sponsor or partner, paraphrase the operator's terms, publish a fabricated code. The desk surfaces the read; readers decide. The full methodology is on this desk; the colophon is on the homepage; both documents are kept in sync.
Frequently asked
How is the role multiplier set?
T20 captain 2×, vice-captain 1.5×; ODI 1.5× and 1.25×; Test 2× and 1.5×.
How is the venue adjustment set?
±0.3 to the role multiplier for surfaces with high dew factor or significant seam movement.
What is the last-N weighting?
50% last-5, 30% last-10, 20% season-long.
Does the desk call winners?
No. The desk surfaces the read; readers decide.
How is the venue adjustment calibrated?
The desk's read on the surface (dew factor, pacer share, spinner share, average first-innings score). The ±0.3 shift is the desk's standard adjustment.
What is the confidence band on a differential pick?
Wide. Differential picks have small samples; the ceiling and floor are working drafts, not guarantees.
Does the desk publish its raw data?
No. The desk is editorial; the source data is the desk's accountability, but the raw datasets are not published.
Can I suggest a methodology change?
Yes, through [email protected]. The desk reviews methodology changes quarterly.
How is the role multiplier set?
T20 captain 2×, vice-captain 1.5×; ODI 1.5× and 1.25×; Test 2× and 1.5×. These are operator-published values.
How is the venue adjustment set?
±0.3 to the role multiplier for surfaces with high dew factor or significant seam movement.
What is the last-N weighting?
50% last-5, 30% last-10, 20% season-long. The desk's standard weighting.
Does the desk call winners?
No. The desk surfaces the read; readers decide.
Can I use the methodology for player props?
No. The desk's methodology is specific to fantasy-cricket XI building. Player-prop markets have different dynamics.